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Yet another foodscare :-(

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Re: Yet another foodscare :-(

Postby Stokey Sue » Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:23 pm

I'm not a statistician or an epidemiologist, though I have worked with both and once passed a stats exam :o

The thing about statistical significance is that it is simply a measure of probability. The difference between group A and group B is usually taken to be statistically significant if the numbers suggest the difference between the two groups is seen at least 95% of the times you measure it (can sometimes be a different percentage). It tells you nothing about what causes it or how important it is to your research. But something likely to show up 95% of the time is probably real

However even real differences may not be useful.
In my own field I have seen a clinical trial in which there was a statistically significant difference between the drug group and the placebo group

42% of the drug group achieved the level of improvement we wanted to see :thumbsup

However, so did 33% of the placebo group, the 9% difference is not worth bothering with, especially when you take side effects and costs into account :thumbsdown

So although statistically significant, the difference was not clinically or biologically significant

Hope that helps

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Re: Yet another foodscare :-(

Postby jeral » Wed Jun 21, 2017 12:24 am

Re the frite "scare", the article says it's only likely to be a recommendation that'll be part of an overall package of reducing acrylamide creation where possible. The idea might well be one that the EU should be looking into, as long as they don't make anything obligatory or forbidden without very good science backing.

The UK has to comply with EU laws for as long as it's officially in the EU.

Applicable existing and future laws and numerous regs will apply for any trade dealings with the EU after leaving.

Mrs May's plan is that all EU laws be carried into English Law in their entirety before Brexit is complete, then start the gargantuan task of crossing out the ones Parliament agrees it doesn't need or want after Brexit. Whether that plan is approved by parliament is anyone's guess now Tories are a minority government.

Tee hee, 28 countries with Chips Police could be on the cards. They had those for the California Highway from 1977-83 ;)

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Re: Yet another foodscare :-(

Postby Petronius » Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:13 am

Thanks Sue, yes I passed a Stats exam once and that shocked me as well. :lol:

The clinical trial you describe was really helpful, I think I've mentioned before the ongoing chat I have with a very good friend of mine who frequently quotes me 'research' from a bunch of American vegans which, to be honest, I don't rate very highly but use the phrase, 'science based' to support their view.

That trial will be most valuable in explaining why some of the research lacks credibility.

The piece I mentoned on how epidemiologists deal with data used, as an example, the link between smoking and cancer. When the chance of getting cancer was 10 times more likely for smokers than for non-smokers they acted with confidence. If their data had shown the link was only twice as likely then the advice might have been different.

Thanks once again, the sun is just beginning to peep into the window where my computer sits so time to retire to a cooler spot. Small back garden but the sun doesn't hit until the afternoon.

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Re: Yet another foodscare :-(

Postby Stokey Sue » Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:05 am

Doll and Peto on smoking are the heroes of evidence based medicine, in my view.

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Re: Yet another foodscare :-(

Postby Petronius » Wed Jun 21, 2017 12:20 pm

Stokey Sue wrote:Doll and Peto on smoking are the heroes of evidence based medicine, in my view.


:thumbsup

Sent from iPad in cool back garden. 8-)

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Re: Yet another foodscare :-(

Postby Petronius » Wed Jun 21, 2017 1:14 pm

Hi Jeral, your post made me smile (as they often do) Chip Police in particular but then always I blanche spuds before roasting in any form.

Quite a lot of EU recommended regulations the UK converted into 'must do'.

Also smiled about the plan to carry all EU laws into English Law. I thought the big beef of everyone was that all our laws came from the EU anyway. So now we've taken back control by adding them in, wanders off muttering, must be the heat. :?: :roll:

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Re: Yet another foodscare :-(

Postby Renée » Wed Jun 21, 2017 2:00 pm

We might as well go back in then, Dennis! :roll: Peace might reign once more ..... or not!

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Re: Yet another foodscare :-(

Postby jeral » Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:57 pm

Well, taking back control means for the future so isn't really at odds.

Agree about UK deciding to convert advisory to "must dos" despite no ability to check and enforce as some regs could just have been ignored same as other countries ignore them.

Renée, unfortunately peace hasn't reigned for a couple of decades or more as the EU is the one thing that's continued to split and bedevil the Tory party, hence D Cameron called the referendum to try to shut the Eurosceptics up. Peace won't return if we go back to as we were now that the whole country is divided. Heated debates ahead methinks, hopefully not getting above 120C°.

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Re: Yet another foodscare :-(

Postby jeral » Wed Jun 21, 2017 4:45 pm

The UK FSA gave advice on Monday about picnic food baskets and how to avoid food poisoning. Much, maybe not all, is what we'd probably all know on here at least in principle, but worth a read nevertheless:

https://www.food.gov.uk/news-updates/ne ... in-the-sun

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Re: Yet another foodscare :-(

Postby Renée » Wed Jun 21, 2017 6:48 pm

Thanks for the information, Jeral.

The acrylamide scare has been going on for a long time now.

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Re: Yet another foodscare :-(

Postby Uschi » Thu Jun 22, 2017 5:22 pm

In Germany they tried to disabuse us of our love of "cinnamon stars", a German Christmas biscuit :crying1 .
You should have heard the outcry!!!! :evil:

Yes, they might have slightly higher levels of the stuff, but they are only consumed in the run up to Christmas. Crisps and chips will feature much higher in most Germans' diets.

As for the acrylamide in German crusty breads ... :stfu :roll:

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Re: Yet another foodscare :-(

Postby Stokey Sue » Thu Jun 22, 2017 8:24 pm

I notice that for a long time German toasters have warned you not to brown toast properly. Ours do too now, but I noticed it as a German thing first

I like my toast a good rich brown, about as dark as the polished table, not just as made stale!

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Re: Yet another foodscare :-(

Postby Renée » Thu Jun 22, 2017 10:45 pm

Well, browning does add a nice depth of flavour to the toast, I suppose, also to meats and onions especially!

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Re: Yet another foodscare :-(

Postby karadekoolaid » Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:24 am

I saw this on the BEEB today:
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/2017062 ... xic-secret

The Tonka Bean grows in a somewhat limited area,and between Venezuela and Guyana. The bean is used extensively in modern Venezuelan cuisine, especially with sweet courses. However, to describe it as "toxic" is nothing short of scandalous!
The aromas obtained from the Tonka bean ( called Sarrápia over here) are exotic, ethereal, divine. AND potent, so no chef in his/her right mind would want to use vast amounts of the spice.
The same, one might add, goes for nutmeg, cinnamon, cloves......
Good grief - the Health Police are at it again.

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Re: Yet another foodscare :-(

Postby Petronius » Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:46 am

I thought the same KK and I'm sure it's the same for toast. For cheese on toast, I do the non cheese side under the grill to get it really crunchy.

Sue, permission please to post your example of 42% and 33% to some friends. I won't use your name but it's such a clear explanation.

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Re: Yet another foodscare :-(

Postby Stokey Sue » Mon Jun 26, 2017 11:42 am

People who point out risks are not always wrong, you know, did you never tell your children not to play with sharp knives?

That's a well balanced article which does indeed point out that many other spices are also technically toxic, but also suggests that the writer is happy to cook and eat food flavoured with Tonka beans. I'd do the same

Tonka is banned in the USA, they banned it in 1954 based on minimal evidence. It is not clear if any country would ban on current evidence. But the US won't relieve the ban now

Because the toxin is coumarin, which frankly not that toxic in small amounts, without a helper. But it does interact with a number of common medicines, notably those given to patients at risk of heart disease (both statins and anticoagulants) If you take any medicine for which you have been told to avoid grapefruit, I'd give Tonka a wide swerve, it really is potentially nasty if you are taking coumarin related meds.

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Re: Yet another foodscare :-(

Postby karadekoolaid » Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:29 pm

Isn`t coumarin used in rat poison, Sue?

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Re: Yet another foodscare :-(

Postby Stokey Sue » Mon Jun 26, 2017 4:45 pm

karadekoolaid wrote:Isn`t coumarin used in rat poison, Sue?

Warfarin = Coumadin is one of the coumarin related drugs that could be a problem if taken with coumarin

Also used as rat poison, yes!

The trouble is the coumarin blocks the breakdown of the drug, so you end up with an apparent overdose, and my understanding is that you need surprisingly little

I live the smell of coumarin, similar to bison grass and pandanus

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Re: Yet another foodscare :-(

Postby karadekoolaid » Tue Jun 27, 2017 12:46 am

I agree with you; it is a well-written article, But what`s possibly going to happen? Someone sees a Tonka Bean in the supermarket and (half)remembers the article, doesn`t buy it because it`s "poisonous", etc. Then a nanny bureaucrat decides the stuff is too dangerous to trust ordinary people with, blah, blah... then we get the tonka bean law, just like the EU cinnamon restrictions which affected Denmark´s favourite cinnamon rolls...One thing leads to another.
I remember once reading a story of a man who killed himself with carrots. Severe melanin poisoning. So should we worry about them too? Perhaps put a warning on them? :lol: :lol:
An slightly changing the subject, a friend in New Zealand is absolutely incensed :
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/dry-rubbery-well-done-medium-rare-burger-off-menu-after-new-food-regulations-introduced

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Re: Yet another foodscare :-(

Postby Badger's Mate » Tue Jun 27, 2017 9:11 am

the EU cinnamon restrictions which affected Denmark´s favourite cinnamon rolls


Did they?

There isn't an EU restriction on cinnamon iirc, but on cassia, which is a related plant containing more coumarin than cinnamon. There was an exception for traditional goods that the Danes, like the Swedes, could have used to allow the use of higher concentrations of cassia in this product.

Consequently Danish bakers would be able to bake 'traditional cinnamon rolls' if they actually put cinnamon in them, and carry on with their current use of cassia if the Danish authorities had taken the get-out clause that the EU provided.

However, that doesn't make a story. I used to believe this sort of stuff until I had to start dealing with EU-derived regulations at work. I saw so many lies told about them, so much propaganda, that I am deeply sceptical of any of the straight banana business.

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